人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒对我国出口行业影响异质性研究

贸易摩擦、新冠疫情使我国经济贸易面临严峻挑战,人民币汇率波动及贸易壁垒将常态化地影响我国出口贸易.在加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局背景下,文章基于HS分类原则,选取WTO等机构的贸易数据,通过构建BEER模型测算了人民币汇率失衡程度;通过建立固定效应面板模型研究了人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒双因素对我国出口行业影响的异质性.研究表明:人民币汇率失衡对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著负向影响,非关税壁垒对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著正向影响;关税和非关税构成的贸易壁垒与人民币汇率失衡双因素对我国出口贸易具有显著抑制作用,并对不同出口行业的影响存在异质性;人民币汇率失衡与非关税壁垒双因素对大多行业均具有显著负向影响,人民币汇率失衡与关税壁垒双因素对不同行业影响的正负效应及程度大小有异质性.因此,建议通过运行逆周期因子等完善人民币汇率自我修正机制;通过引导出口企业了解使用外汇衍生品等促进外汇衍生品市场运行机制的健全;通过加强"海外仓"建设及深耕RCEP框架下的东盟十国市场等实施出口行业差异化贸易策略;通过提升自主科技创新能力等加快出口行业产业转型升级,推动双循环,实现我国出口贸易高质量发展.     

A primal dual active set with continuation algorithm for high-dimensional nonconvex SICA-penalized regression

The smooth integration of counting and absolute deviation (SICA) penalty has been demonstrated theoretically and practically to be effective in nonconvex penalization for variable selection and parameter estimation. However, solving the nonconvex optimization problem associated with SICA penalty in high-dimensional setting remains to be enriched, mainly due to the singularity at the origin and the nonconvexity of the SICA penalty function. In this paper, we develop a fast primal dual active set (PDAS) with continuation algorithm for solving the nonconvex SICA-penalized least squares in high dimensions. Upon introducing the dual variable, the PDAS algorithm iteratively identify and update the active set in the optimization using both the primal and dual information, and then solve a low-dimensional least square problem on the active set. When combined with a continuation strategy and a high-dimensional Bayesian information criterion (BIC) selector on the tuning parameters, the proposed algorithm is very efficient and accurate. Extensive simulation studies and analysis of a high-dimensional microarray gene expression data are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.     

双循环发展的改革开放空间试验场——我国开发区的缘起、演进和趋势

开发区是我国改革开放进程中重要的"制度安排",在制度转型、市场机制培育、产业结构升级和带动地区经济增长等方面发挥着引领示范作用,但同时也存在政策效应边际递减、土地资源浪费、创新不足等诸多问题.梳理我国开发区过去三十多年的发展经验和不足,并展望其未来定位是一项重要的研究课题.在详细讨论我国开发区的缘起、动力机制、发展阶段、功能演变、面临问题的基础上,文章从制度安排、比较优势、产业集聚和商业环境四个方面总结了我国开发区取得的成功经验.未来,开发区的发展应实现从生产到生活、从效率到公平、从地的繁荣到人的繁荣、从外围到中心、从专业化到多样化、从高速增长到高质量发展、从对外开放到国内国际双循环等方面的转变.     

双循环新发展格局下中国双向直接投资研究

构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,是对未来中国经济发展路径做出的重大战略部署,作为连接国内国际双循环的纽带,双向直接投资的发展战略和路径面临重塑和调整。研究认为,应当以推动新时代科技创新和产业升级为目标,提高双向直接投资的质量,畅通供应链和产业链; 以“一带一路”倡议为依托,通过更高水平的双向投资带动中国与沿线国家贸易水平的提高; 建设高水平自贸区和自贸港,提高对外开放标准,更高质量吸引外资,提升参与国际大循环的技术含量和自主性; 在畅通要素流动领域,建立更加完善的现代化物流体系,建设更高标准的要素流通市场体系,降低制度性交易费用,提高生产率和对高质量外资的吸引能力。     

基于数量柔性契约的双源应急物资采购定价模型

针对灾害事件发生的不确定性以及灾害发生后应急物资需求量的爆发式增长，本文设计了一个政府主导的基于数量柔性契约的双源应急物资采购模型。在存在一个现货市场的情况下，政府除了常规采购外，还会与供应方签订一份数量柔性契约，用以建立政企联合储备应急物资的合作关系。通过数理推导，本文发现灾害事件发生概率，政府自身储备量，现货市场采购价格会对双方决策产生重要影响，并给出三个影响因素在满足不同条件时政企双方的最优决策，同时进一步分析了这三个因素对政府采购成本与供应方利润的影响。最后，通过数值模拟的方式对所得结论进行了验证。本文的研究为政府与企业构建联合储备应急物资的合作关系提供了指导与依据。     

大数据背景下个人信息处理行为的法律规制——以个人信息处理行为的双重外部性为分析视角

大数据背景下个人信息处理行为既引发数据安全风险等负外部性，也会带来分享经济价值实现等正外部性，"大数据悖论"现象揭示了双重外部性成因。基于"外部性内在化"原理赋予信息主体以个人信息权并赋予数据控制者以大数据财产权虽有助分别规制其双重外部性，但网络大数据背景下其双重外部性规制彼此交互影响而面临两难困境。法经济学关于"损害之相互性"理论证立了基于"风险导向理念"规制个人信息处理以破解其两难困境的经济逻辑。大数据产业发展有赖个人信息处理的"外部性外部化"而实现分享经济。法经济学关于"公地喜剧"理论证立了基于"外部性外部化"规制个人信息处理而满足大数据产业发展需要的经济逻辑。大数据背景下个人信息处理的规制有赖从"压制型法"到兼及"回应型法"的理念转换，从"外部性内在化"兼及"外部性外部化"的机制并举，从数据资源权利配置兼及数字技术权力干预的措施协同，实现大数据产业创新与个人信息安全的有机平衡。     

English in French Commercial Advertising: Simultaneity,bivalency, and language boundaries

In recent decades, sociolinguists have begun to challenge the traditional view that multilingualism is fundamentally composed of discrete systems known as ‘languages’. Supporting the assessment that languages are not bounded entities but sociocultural and ideological constructions, this article explores commercial advertisements in France, which are subject to language policies assuming that ‘French’ is easily separable from ‘foreign languages’. Employing the Bakhtinian‐influenced notion of bivalency developed by Woolard (1998), the article argues for a special consideration of mixed‐language advertising in France, rooted not only in linguistic form, but also in the specific contextual tension produced by the socio‐political statuses of French and English. The resulting creativity challenges the monolectal assumptions within French language management, indicating a clash of segregational language ideology with integrational language practices. The article further argues that this language mixing is bidirectional, as advertisements may both erase and emphasise the assumed boundaries between codes.     

Optimal asset allocation for participating contracts with mortality risk under minimum guarantee

Abstract

We investigate an optimal investment problem of participating insurance contracts with mortality risk under minimum guarantee. The insurer aims to maximize the expected utility of the terminal payoff. Due to its piecewise payoff structure, this optimization problem is a non-concave utility maximization problem. We adopt a concavification technique and a Lagrange dual method to solve the problem and derive the representations of the optimal wealth process and trading strategies. We also carry out some numerical analysis to show how the portfolio insurance constraint impacts the optimal terminal wealth.     

Are dual and single exposures differently associated with clinical levels of trauma symptoms? Examining physical abuse and witnessing intimate partner violence among young children

A significant portion of children living in the United States have experienced trauma. Informed by the developmental traumatology model, we explored the effects of physical abuse and witnessing intimate partner violence (IPV) on childhood trauma symptoms. This study utilizes a convenience sample of 580 high‐risk children between 3 and 12 years who received services from one‐child advocacy centre during a 12‐month period. We performed a series of binary logistic regression analyses to examine if physical abuse, exposure to IPV, and dual exposure (i.e., both physical abuse and IPV) are distinctly associated with six trauma symptoms, including anxiety, depression, posttraumatic stress (PTS), dissociation, anger, and sexual concerns. The results indicated that dual exposure was predictive of all trauma symptoms, except for dissociation. Additionally, physical abuse was associated with PTS, anger, and sexual concerns, whereas exposure to IPV was associated with depression, PTS, and sexual concerns. Research and implications for practitioners working with young children are discussed.     

富裕社会中贫困的消除：加尔布雷思的探究及启示

贫困表现为人的基本需要得不到满足，“富裕社会”中的贫困表现为私人生产、物质生产的过剩和公共生产、精神生产的不足。加尔布雷思认为，美国“富裕社会”中贫困的原因是不平衡的“二元经济体系”，只要实行“新社会主义”，实现“计划体系”和“市场体系”的平衡，就能解决“富裕”背后的贫困问题。由于这一设想是以不改变资本主义的经济基础为前提的，所以，只能是一种治标不治本的改良。只有扬弃经济学的“传统智慧”，建构以促进“每个人的自由发展”为目标的“全面生产”经济学，才能从根本上消除“富裕社会”中的贫困问题。